Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Country Report 9M 2019

Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Country Report 9M 2019

Brief Summary

The current Report uncovers the 9M 2019 business trends of the pharmaceutical market of the Republic of Kazakhstan, overviews its healthcare system, portrays its epidemiology and demographics. It also depicts pharma regulation features in Kazakhstan including a step-by-step process of the marketing authorization for pharmaceutical products. It provides insight into the country’s socio-political development since independence, describes recent economic trends, and provides the pharmaceutical market forecast for the next three years (2019-2021).

The Report is intended for industry executives, decision-makers, sales & marketing, and market access managers and other stakeholders. "Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Country Report 9M 2019" will be useful for top-managers, business owners, consultants and other stakeholders of the Life Sciences industry, who are analyzing, planning to enter or invest in the Kazakh pharma and/or healthcare market.

The Report covers the 2012-2018 full-year data and 9M 2019 data for the pharmaceutical market and provides a forecast for the period of 2019-2021.

Series: Pharmaceutical Market Country Reports
Country: Kazakhstan
Data years: 2013-2018; 9M 2019
Format: .pdf
Additional files: .xlsx, .pptx
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Political development of Kazakhstan in 2019

In February 2019, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbaev dismissed the government, citing its failure to raise living standards and diversify the economy away from the energy sector. On March 19, 2019, Nazarbayev surprisingly announced his resignation from the presidency after ruling the country for 29 years. Kazakh senate speaker Kassym-Jomart Tokayev became acting president after Nursultan Nazarbayev's resignation. On June 9, Tokayev won an early presidential election.

Despite resignation, Nazarbayev maintained considerable powers. He carries the titles of “First President” and Elbasy (Leader of the Nation). He is also a lifetime chairman of the National Security Council and the head of the ruling Nur Otan party. Some experts consider Nazarbayev is more powerful than the actual president considering his authority and influence over key government appointments.

After Nazarbayev and the government failed to deliver on the promises for reform, there is an intense desire among the population to challenge the status quo. This public discontent is rising against a precarious social backdrop:

  1. The wealth gap is widening
  2. Growing inflation
  3. Repeated currency devaluations damage savings of the population
  4. Saturated job market
  5. Run-down public services
  6. Tone-deaf government responses to recent tragic disasters

As a result, protests are gaining momentum. Considering Kazakhstan’s very ethnically diverse population, there are concerns that separatism and extremism could become a genuine possibility if the current political void is not filled.

Economy of Kazakhstan in 2019

Real GDP rose by 4.3% in 9M 2019, reflecting robust expansion in household and business spending. The growth also accounts for an increase in output of the light industry at 19.0%, manufacturing at 18.2%, metal ore mining at 16.1%, construction at 13.5%, trade at 7.6%, oil refining at 7.2% and transport at 5.5%. The contribution of net exports, which had provided a substantial addition to GDP during the past two years, faded because of a surge in imports and decreased oil supplies. Oil production slowed down in 9M 2019 due to planned repair works in the three main oilfields.

Fixed investment increased by 9.7% in 9M 2019, partly due to the construction of the Saryarka gas pipeline. In September, annual inflation was 5.3%, which was within the central bank’s target band.

Dashboard. Kazakhstan's Real GDP and GDP growth rates + Kazakhstani Tenge exhange rates (avg)(Sources: IMF, National Bank of Kazakhstan)

The economy is expected to expand more slowly, by 3.8% in 2019 and 3.9% in 2020, as the contribution of mining will probably moderate. Household spending and investment will continue to drive demand, although to a lesser extent than in previous years. On the supply side, growth is expected to be supported by non-tradable services. The weak performance of manufacturing, owing to lackluster FDI and the limited participation of domestic companies in the global supply chains, will weigh down on the economic expansion.

Inflation is likely to stabilize around its current level. However, rising domestic cost pressure and potential tenge volatility may strengthen inflation expectations and push up price increases.

Trends of the Kazakh pharmaceutical market in 2019

Market structure

The pharmaceutical market of Kazakhstan consists of three sales segments:

  1. retail (sales through pharmacies and pharmacy chains), and
  2. hospital (hospital purchases at the expense of the state budget and own funds of hospitals and regional healthcare budgets, purchases by private hospitals),
  3. free and co-payment (medicines and medical products partially or fully reimbursed by the state).

Dashboard. Shares of Sales Segments in the Total Pharma Market, VALUES Source: UPharma Consulting, IQVIA)

Expansion of the reimbursement program led to that the share of free and co-payment segment grew from 9.5% in 2017 to 20.9% in 9M 2019, while the hospital segment was cut down from 34.3% to 20.2%, respectively.

Local pharmaceutical manufacturers

The local manufacturing of pharmaceuticals in Kazakhstan is not considerable. The three largest pharma plants in the country have been developing thanks to foreign investments. As at the end of 2019, there were 7 local and 4 foreign GMP-certified production sites in Kazakhstan.

In 2019, 168 pharmaceutical enterprises were operating in Kazakhstan. Three of them were large enterprises, 11 were medium, and 154 were small. Totally, the pharmaceutical industry employed more than 16 ths people.

  • The biggest local manufacturers: Santo (Polpharma), Nobel AFF and Abdi Ibrahim Global Pharm.
  • The most competitive international companies on the market: Sanofi-Aventis, Takeda, Johnson & Johnson, Bayer, etc.

Average market prices

Dashboard. Weighted average cost of a pack (WACP) on the pharmaceutical market by segments (Source: UPharma Consulting; IQVIA)

In 9M 2019, the weighted average cost of a pack (WACP) on the total market amounted to USD 2.28, slightly growing vs 2018.

The WACP in the retail segment has been growing gradually, while prices in the hospital segment decreased almost twice as much in the last 5 years. Average prices in the free and co-payment segment notably reduced as the program was expanded to include cheaper drugs.

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